The point of this note
I’m using 2026 to compound restructuring judgment: pattern recognition, cleaner thinking, and better outputs.
What I’m watching
- Liquidity tightening / refinancing walls
- Covenant pressure and amendments as early-warning signals
- Working-capital stress in specific sectors
What I’m studying
- Landmark restructurings (case notes, filings, post-mortems)
- Negotiation tactics in multi-lender environments
What I’m building
- A public library of short restructuring notes
- Practical templates and checklists (sanitized and generalized)
What would change my mind
- Evidence that credit conditions are loosening materially
- Sector signals that contradict the stress thesis